Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns

The widespread presence of local conflict characterizes many developing countries such as Indonesia. Outbreaks of violent conflict not only have direct costs for lives, livelihoods, and material property, but may also have the potential to escalate further. Recent studies on large-scale"headline"conflicts have tended to exclude the systematic consideration of local conflict, in large part due to the absence of representative data at low levels of geographic specification. This paper is a first attempt to correct for that. We evaluate a unique dataset compiled by the Indonesian government, the periodic Village Potential Statistics (PODES), which seeks to map conflict across all of Indonesia's 69,000 villages/neighborhoods. The data confirm that conflict is prevalent beyond well publicized"conflict regions,"and that it can be observed across the archipelago. The data report largely violent conflict in 7.1 percent of Indonesia's lowest administrative tier (rural desa and urban kelurahan). Integrating examples from qualitative fieldwork, we assess issues in the measurement of local conflict for quantitative analysis, and adopt an empirical framework to examine potential associations with poverty, inequality, shocks, ethnic and religious diversity/inequality, and community-level associational and security arrangements. The quantitative analysis shows positive correlations between local conflict and unemployment, inequality, natural disasters, changes in sources of incomes, and clustering of ethnic groups within villages. The institutional variables indicate that the presence of places of worship is associated with less conflict, while the presence of religious groups and traditional culture (adat) institutions are associated with conflict. We conclude by suggesting future areas of research, notably on the role of group inequality and inference, and suggest ways to improve the measurement of conflict in the village census.Services&Transfers to Poor,Post Conflict Reconstruction,Public Health Promotion,Education and Society,Peace&Peacekeeping,Post Conflict Reconstruction,Education and Society,Social Conflict and Violence,Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor

The"resource curse"in MENA ? political transitions, resource wealth, economic shocks, and conflict risk

The recent political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa region have exposed growing concerns about conflict risk, political stability, and reform prospects across its societies. Given the prevalence of oil and gas resource endowments in the region, which a voluminous literature suggests can be associated with adverse development consequences, this paper examines the interplay between their associated rents and political economy trajectories. The contribution of the paper is threefold: first, to examine the quantitative evidence of violent conflict in the region since 1960; second, to provide a nuanced review of the regional case study literature on the relationship between resource endowments, political stability, and conflict risk; and third, to assess how prospective political transitions have implications for the World Bank Group's work in the region on public sector management and private sector development. The authors find that resources and regimes have intersected to provide stability and limited violent conflict in the region, but that these development patterns have yielded a set of policy choices and development patterns that are proving increasingly brittle and unsustainable. A major institutional challenge for reforms will be to consolidate a requisite degree of inter-temporal credibility and stability in these regimes, while expanding inclusiveness in state-society relations.Environmental Economics&Policies,Post Conflict Reconstruction,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Emerging Markets

Managing post-disaster reconstruction finance -- international experience in public financial management

In recent years, natural and man-made disasters have confronted the international community with its most demanding reconstruction challenges since the aftermath of World War II. Managing the inflow of resources and spending those resources well have proven to be two of the main difficulties in such reconstruction projects, particularly after large-scale disasters. A central dilemma of the public financial management of reconstruction is the need for very high levels of accountability to demonstrate fiduciary credibility, while at the same time ensuring the rapid implementation of recovery programs. This paper identifies options and lessons for managing post-disaster reconstruction finance in three key areas: (i) the establishment of special institutions to manage the reconstruction process; (ii) the selection of public financial management systems with respect to the application of country systems, special fiduciary arrangements, or donor/NGO execution; and (iii) monitoring and evaluation systems. The authors synthesize the phasing of assistance and approaches in eight recent post-natural disaster reconstruction efforts (Aceh-Indonesia, Yogyakarta-Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, Colombia, Grenada, and Honduras) to help guide the priorities and options for future instances of public financial management for disaster reconstruction. The paper also compares the challenges posed by post-conflict versus post-natural disaster public financial management.Natural Disasters,Disaster Management,Post Conflict Reconstruction,Social Accountability,Post Conflict Reintegration

Evaluating fiscal equalization in Indonesia

This paper presents a methodology to evaluate fiscal decentralization focusing on the potential mis-targeting of intergovernmental fiscal equalization transfers. The approach builds on an explicit comparison and the summary measurement of different (horizontal) allocation distributions across states or localities. Whereas formula-based fiscal transfers have the merit of being transparent and promoting revenue predictability in fiscal decentralization, in practice, two challenges emerge: (1) What are the appropriate formula designs given the sub-national data constraints evident in most decentralizing developing countries? and (2) How costly in terms of mis-targeting to the presumed expenditure needs and fiscal capacity are deviations from these types of benchmark formulas (for example, due to historical factors or the need to meet establishment costs such as civil service wages)? The authors illustrate this approach by assessing Indonesia's evolving intergovernmental fiscal system instituted in the 2001 Big Bang decentralization. The discussion comes against Indonesia's recent policy decision to fully fund sub-national civil servant wages as part of the base general allocation grant (DAU) transfers, raising questions about both incentive effects for local governments and potential mis-targeting. The authors identify potential efficiency losses from the DAU's horizontal misallocation from half a dozen alternative scenarios found in the policy dialogue, ranging from 9 to 30 percent-on the order of US$ 3.9 billion-of the overall annual size of this large intergovernmental transfer. The scale of these tradeoffs highlights the importance of intergovernmental transfers in more general debates in public finance for decentralized countries.Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Management and Reform,Fiscal Adjustment,Regional Governance,Urban Governance and Management

Electoral accountability, fiscal decentralization and service delivery in Indonesia

This paper takes advantage of the exogenous phasing of direct elections in districts and applies the double difference estimator to: (i) measure impacts on the pattern of public spending and revenue generation at the district level; and (ii) investigate the heterogeneity of the impacts on public spending. The authors confirm that the electoral reforms had positive effects on district expenditures and these effects were mainly due to the increases in expenditures in the districts outside Java and Bali and the changes in expenditures brought about by non-incumbents elected in the districts. Electoral reforms also led to higher revenue generation from own sources and to higher budget surplus. Finally, the analysis finds that in anticipation of the forthcoming direct elections, district governments tend to have higher current expenditures on public works.Subnational Economic Development,Public Sector Expenditure Policy,Parliamentary Government,E-Government,Debt Markets

Rents to Riches? The Political Economy of Natural-Resource-Led Development (Publication Announcement)

A publication announcement created for an event at the Dudley Knox Library, Naval Postgraduate Schoo

Health-Related Quality of Life after Fractures of the Distal Forearm in Children and Adolescents-Results from a Center in Switzerland in 432 Patients.

(1) Background: We aimed to evaluate the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in children with fractures of the distal forearm and to assess if HRQoL was associated with fracture classification; (2) Methods: We followed up on 432 patients (185 girls, 247 boys) who sustained a fracture of the distal radius or forearm from 1/2007 to 6/2007, 1/2014 to 6/2014, and 11/2016 to 10/2017. Patients filled in the Quick-DASH (primary outcome) and the Peds-QL; (3) Results: The radius was fractured in 429 and the ulna in 175 cases. The most frequent injury of the radius was a buckle fracture (51%, mean age 8.5 years), followed by a complete metaphyseal fracture (22%, 9.5 years), Salter-Harris-2 fracture (14%, 11.4 years), greenstick fracture (10%, 9.3 years), Salter-Harris-1 fracture (1%, 12.6 years), and other rare injuries. The most common treatment was closed reduction and an above-elbow cast in 138 cases (32%), followed by a cast without reduction (30%), splint (28%), and K-wire fixation and cast (9%). Definite treatment was performed initially in 95.8%, a new cast or cast wedging was performed in 1.6%, and revision surgery was performed in 2.5%. There were no open reductions and no plate fixations. After a mean follow-up of 4.2 years, patients with buckle fractures had a mean Quick-DASH of 3.3 (scale of 0-100) (complete fracture: 1.5; greenstick: 1.5; SH-1: 0.9; SH-2: 4.1; others: 0.9). The mean function score of the PedsQL ranged from 93.0 for SH-2 fractures to 97.9 for complete fractures; (4) Conclusions: In this cohort of 432 children with fractures of the distal forearm, there was equally good mean mid- and long-term HRQoL when assessed by the Quick-DASH and the PedsQL. There was a trend for children with complete metaphyseal fractures reporting better HRQoL than patients with buckle fractures or patients with Salter-Harris II fractures, however, these differences were not statistically significant nor clinically relevant

Persistent global power fluctuations near a dynamic transition in electroconvection

This is a study of the global fluctuations in power dissipation and light transmission through a liquid crystal just above the onset of electroconvection. The source of the fluctuations is found to be the creation and annihilation of defects. They are spatially uncorrelated and yet temporally correlated. The temporal correlation is seen to persist for extremely long times. There seems to be an especially close relation between defect creation/annihilat ion in electroconvection and thermal plumes in Rayleigh-B\'enard convection